It’s been a month that I haven’t written about the campaign, and I wrote more earlier this year about my discovering and understanding of the primaries.
Today, I am a bit fed up by the news networks’ calculations and forecasts and scenarios and …. about the potential outcomes of the primaries. So to add to the mess, here is my own potential forecast scenario calculation.
Based on the numbers I dug up here, and based on today’s (May 7th 2008) CNN delegates estimates:
- Barack Obama has 1,836 delegates, incl. 252 super-delegates,
- Hillary Clinton has 1,681 delegates, incl. 266 super-delegates,
- 3,517 delegates (incl. 518 super-delegates) have been won so far, that is to say 87% of the 4,049,
- There are roughly 254 delegates and 278 super-delegates remaining, i.e. 13% of the 4,049.
So here are my own estimates ;) :
So basically, Obama won. It would be a hell of a surprise (or a historical manipulation) if she makes it after the convention.
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are you talking about American Idol?